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Debre Markos University offers a Browse by Title feature within its Institutional Research Repository System that enables users to easily find and access academic research outputs by their titles. This feature organizes theses, dissertations, and other scholarly works alphabetically or by keyword in the title, allowing researchers, students, and the community to quickly locate specific documents when they know all or part of a title. By focusing on titles, users can efficiently explore the repository's collection and discover relevant research materials without needing to search by author or department.

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Research Papers by Title Sorted alphabetically A-Z
THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL MULTI-PURPOSE COOPERATIVES ON RURAL HOUSEHOLDS‘ FOOD SECURITY IN WEST GOJJAM ZONE AMHARA REGION, ETHIOPIA
Research Paper
Yilkal Messelu (Ass. Professor; MSc in Biostatistics) PI Alebel Baye (Msc in MASTMO) Co-researcher Enanu Tesfaw (MA in Management) Co-researcher Submitted: Oct 30, 2025
DMU Burie Campus Management
Abstract Preview:
ABSTRACT Food security remains a critical global challenge, with millions of people suffering from hunger and malnutrition. Agricultural Multi-Purpose Cooperatives (AMPCs) are intended to improve food security by enhancing access to inputs, markets, and services. This study examines the impact of AMPCs on rural household food security in West Gojjam using ordinal logistic regression. Out of a total sample size of 1,122 rural households, 1,068 were included in the analysis. The study employed a cross-sectional research design. The findings revealed that, out of the 1,068 households surveyed, 45.3% were food secure, 22.6% were mildly food insecure and 32.1% were food insecure. Overall, 54.7% experienced some level of food insecurity, highlighting the need for improved food access and support interventions. The multiple ordinal logistic regression analysis revealed that factors such as female-headed households, large household size, smaller landholdings, lack of livestock ownership, absence of non-farm income, limited irrigation access, lack of credit, lack of Market Access, and no use of agricultural inputs significantly increase the likelihood of rural household food insecurity. Based on the results, it is recommended to focus on supporting female-headed households, reducing household size through family planning, improving land access, increasing livestock ownership, promoting non-farm income opportunities, enhancing irrigation access, providing credit, strengthening market linkages, and ensuring the widespread use of agricultural inputs to improve food security. Keywords: Agricultural cooperatives, food security, rural households, West Gojjam, Ethiopia, ordinal logistic regression.
Full Abstract:
ABSTRACT Food security remains a critical global challenge, with millions of people suffering from hunger and malnutrition. Agricultural Multi-Purpose Cooperatives (AMPCs) are intended to improve food security by enhancing access to inputs, markets, and services. This study examines the impact of AMPCs on rural household food security in West Gojjam using ordinal logistic regression. Out of a total sample size of 1,122 rural households, 1,068 were included in the analysis. The study employed a cross-sectional research design. The findings revealed that, out of the 1,068 households surveyed, 45.3% were food secure, 22.6% were mildly food insecure and 32.1% were food insecure. Overall, 54.7% experienced some level of food insecurity, highlighting the need for improved food access and support interventions. The multiple ordinal logistic regression analysis revealed that factors such as female-headed households, large household size, smaller landholdings, lack of livestock ownership, absence of non-farm income, limited irrigation access, lack of credit, lack of Market Access, and no use of agricultural inputs significantly increase the likelihood of rural household food insecurity. Based on the results, it is recommended to focus on supporting female-headed households, reducing household size through family planning, improving land access, increasing livestock ownership, promoting non-farm income opportunities, enhancing irrigation access, providing credit, strengthening market linkages, and ensuring the widespread use of agricultural inputs to improve food security. Keywords: Agricultural cooperatives, food security, rural households, West Gojjam, Ethiopia, ordinal logistic regression.
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The Impact of Armed Conflict on Education, Psychosocial, Economy and Political Conditions: Evidence in East and West Gojjam, and Awi Zones of the Amhara Regional State (2023-2025)
Research Paper
Temesgen Adam (Assistant Professor in Counseling Psychology, PI, IEBS, Psychology, temesgen.adam@gmail.com, P.O.BOX 260 AlemayehuWendie (MA in Clinical Psychology, Co-Researcher, IEBS, Psychology, alemayehuwendie44@gmail.comTarekegn Desalegn (PhD) in Developmental Psychology, IEBS, Psychology, CoResearcher tarekegndesalegn68@gmail.comMelsew Lulie (MA in Philosophy, Co-Researcher, CSSH, Civics & Ethical Studies, melsewstd@gmail.com AshebirTsegaye(MSC in Economics, Co-Researcher, FBE, Economics, ashebir2007@gmail.comTinur Zlalem (MA in Early childhood education, Co-Researcher, IEBS, Early Childhood Education, tinurzelalem@gmail.com Submitted: Oct 31, 2025
Educational and Behavioral Sciences Psychology
Abstract Preview:
Executive Summary The ongoing armed conflict in the Amhara region between the Ethiopian government forces and the Amhara Fano forces has caused significant disruptions in the lives of the local population in East and West Gojjam, and Awi Zones. This research seeks to explore the multifaceted impacts of the conflict on education, the economy, psychosocial well-being, and political stability in these regions. With the conflict lasting for nine months, children have been deprived of education, communities are suffering from psychosocial distress, and both the economy and political environment are severely affected. The study aims to achieve two key objectives: first, to provide a detailed understanding of the situation through evidence-based findings, which will be disseminated at local, national, and international levels; and second, to gather data that can help develop interventions to address the ongoing impacts of the conflict, preventing long-term damage to the affected populations. To meet these objectives, the research will use a mixed-methods approach, employing both quantitative and qualitative data collection techniques. A cross-sectional descriptive survey design and a phenomenological research design will be applied. Data will be gathered through questionnaires, interviews, focus group discussions (FGDs), and document analysis. The research will focus on a purposive sample of individuals directly affected by or involved in the conflict, selected from towns and Woredas using a simple random sampling method. Collected data analyzed using percentage and frequency distributions for quantitative data, and thematic content analysis for qualitative data. Ethical considerations, such as ensuring participant confidentiality and voluntary participation strictly followed. The outcomes of this study will raise awareness of the conflict‘s impacts, inform intervention strategies, and provide evidence to guide recovery efforts. Ultimately, the research will contribute to developing targeted policies and actions to support education, economic recovery, psychosocial well-being, and political stability in the affected regions.
Full Abstract:
Executive Summary The ongoing armed conflict in the Amhara region between the Ethiopian government forces and the Amhara Fano forces has caused significant disruptions in the lives of the local population in East and West Gojjam, and Awi Zones. This research seeks to explore the multifaceted impacts of the conflict on education, the economy, psychosocial well-being, and political stability in these regions. With the conflict lasting for nine months, children have been deprived of education, communities are suffering from psychosocial distress, and both the economy and political environment are severely affected. The study aims to achieve two key objectives: first, to provide a detailed understanding of the situation through evidence-based findings, which will be disseminated at local, national, and international levels; and second, to gather data that can help develop interventions to address the ongoing impacts of the conflict, preventing long-term damage to the affected populations. To meet these objectives, the research will use a mixed-methods approach, employing both quantitative and qualitative data collection techniques. A cross-sectional descriptive survey design and a phenomenological research design will be applied. Data will be gathered through questionnaires, interviews, focus group discussions (FGDs), and document analysis. The research will focus on a purposive sample of individuals directly affected by or involved in the conflict, selected from towns and Woredas using a simple random sampling method. Collected data analyzed using percentage and frequency distributions for quantitative data, and thematic content analysis for qualitative data. Ethical considerations, such as ensuring participant confidentiality and voluntary participation strictly followed. The outcomes of this study will raise awareness of the conflict‘s impacts, inform intervention strategies, and provide evidence to guide recovery efforts. Ultimately, the research will contribute to developing targeted policies and actions to support education, economic recovery, psychosocial well-being, and political stability in the affected regions.
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The Politics of Secularism in Ethiopia: Repression and Cooption Towards the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahido Church
Journal Article
Dereje Melese Liyew Submitted: Nov 10, 2025
Social Science and Humanities Political Science and International Relations
Abstract Preview:
Secularism in Ethiopia has not been practiced as stipulated in the 1995 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) constitution, the separation of state and religion. Instead, consecutive regimes since the introduction of secularism employed the tactic of co-option and repression towards the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahido Church (EOTC) to meet their political objectives. This article thus tried to address the nature and manifestation of government intervention in the EOTC through either co-option and/or repression, with a special emphasis on the post-2018 regime. The study argues that de facto secularism in Ethiopia is far from the essence of the separation of state and religion; it is a new version of religion industriously implemented by governments to upgrade the Orthodox Church in a way that fits with the political system. The secular regimes co-opted and repressed the church conditionally at any cost to the institution through the Machiavellian approach. The study also finds that the Prosperity-led regime was actively involved in the internal affairs of the church—in the early days through co-option in the name of reconciliation with the exile synod and later through repression. Manifestations of this repression include the mass killing of orthodox followers, burning of churches and restriction on the church’s annual ceremony, as in the case of Epiphany and Meskel(Demera).Keywords: Secularism, religion, co-option, repression, EOTC
Full Abstract:
Secularism in Ethiopia has not been practiced as stipulated in the 1995 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) constitution, the separation of state and religion. Instead, consecutive regimes since the introduction of secularism employed the tactic of co-option and repression towards the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahido Church (EOTC) to meet their political objectives. This article thus tried to address the nature and manifestation of government intervention in the EOTC through either co-option and/or repression, with a special emphasis on the post-2018 regime. The study argues that de facto secularism in Ethiopia is far from the essence of the separation of state and religion; it is a new version of religion industriously implemented by governments to upgrade the Orthodox Church in a way that fits with the political system. The secular regimes co-opted and repressed the church conditionally at any cost to the institution through the Machiavellian approach. The study also finds that the Prosperity-led regime was actively involved in the internal affairs of the church—in the early days through co-option in the name of reconciliation with the exile synod and later through repression. Manifestations of this repression include the mass killing of orthodox followers, burning of churches and restriction on the church’s annual ceremony, as in the case of Epiphany and Meskel(Demera).Keywords: Secularism, religion, co-option, repression, EOTC
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Theoretical study on the effects of Mn ion doping and applied magnetic field in (In,Mn)As
Journal Article
Bawoke Mekuye a, Gebru Zerihun b Submitted: Jun 09, 2024
Natural & Computational Sciences Physics
Abstract Preview:
Diluted magnetic semiconductors are a recent research area due to their ability to enhance ferromagneticproperties and facilitate the electrical detection of magnetoresistance and polarization. (In, Mn)As dilute mag-netic semiconductor has potential application in the field of spintronic devices, such as spin field-effectivetransistors, spin laser light-emitted diodes, modern technology, multi-functional devices, green technology,and nanotechnology. For this study, we have considered the RKKY interaction between Mn2+ spins via delo-calized carriers. The effect of manganese ion concentration and applied magnetic field on ferromagnetic dilutedmagnetic semiconductor properties such as dispersion relation, Curie temperature, and reduced magnetization of(In, Mn)As are studied. We have developed a spin-wave model using the Holstein-Primakaff transformation.Based on the developed model, the number of ferromagnetic magnons, dispersion relations, and Curie temper-atures were calculated with or without an applied magnetic field. The reduced magnetization is also calculated.The graph of Curie temperature and magnetization of (In,Mn)As versus temperature with applied field up to 6 Tand manganese ion concentration from 0.01 to 0.1 are plotted. The graph of spin wave dispersion of (In,Mn)Asversus a wave vector with varying manganese ion concentration with and without an applied magnetic field up to6 T. In this study, an InMnAs Curie temperature of 290.68 K is found without an applied magnetic field with a 0.1manganese ion concentration, which is near room temperature. Moreover, with an applied magnetic field of 6 Tat 0.1 manganese ion concentration, a Curie temperature of 342.466 K is found, which is above room temper-ature. Hence, these temperatures are suitable for the field of next-generation spintronic new technology.
Keywords: Magnetization, Spintronics, Curie temperature, Dispersion relation, Wave vector
Full Abstract:
Diluted magnetic semiconductors are a recent research area due to their ability to enhance ferromagneticproperties and facilitate the electrical detection of magnetoresistance and polarization. (In, Mn)As dilute mag-netic semiconductor has potential application in the field of spintronic devices, such as spin field-effectivetransistors, spin laser light-emitted diodes, modern technology, multi-functional devices, green technology,and nanotechnology. For this study, we have considered the RKKY interaction between Mn2+ spins via delo-calized carriers. The effect of manganese ion concentration and applied magnetic field on ferromagnetic dilutedmagnetic semiconductor properties such as dispersion relation, Curie temperature, and reduced magnetization of(In, Mn)As are studied. We have developed a spin-wave model using the Holstein-Primakaff transformation.Based on the developed model, the number of ferromagnetic magnons, dispersion relations, and Curie temper-atures were calculated with or without an applied magnetic field. The reduced magnetization is also calculated.The graph of Curie temperature and magnetization of (In,Mn)As versus temperature with applied field up to 6 Tand manganese ion concentration from 0.01 to 0.1 are plotted. The graph of spin wave dispersion of (In,Mn)Asversus a wave vector with varying manganese ion concentration with and without an applied magnetic field up to6 T. In this study, an InMnAs Curie temperature of 290.68 K is found without an applied magnetic field with a 0.1manganese ion concentration, which is near room temperature. Moreover, with an applied magnetic field of 6 Tat 0.1 manganese ion concentration, a Curie temperature of 342.466 K is found, which is above room temper-ature. Hence, these temperatures are suitable for the field of next-generation spintronic new technology.
Keywords: Magnetization, Spintronics, Curie temperature, Dispersion relation, Wave vector
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Time to first optimal glycemic control and its predictors among adult type 2 diabetes patients in Amhara Regional State comprehensive specialized hospitals, Northwest Ethiopia
Journal Article
Sintayehu Chalie1, Atsede Alle Ewunetie2, Moges Agazhe Assemie2, Atalay Liknaw2, Friehiwot Molla2, Animut Takele Telayneh2 and Bekalu Endalew Submitted: Aug 30, 2024
College of Health Science Public Health
Abstract Preview:
Background Inadequate glycemic management in type 2 diabetes Mellitus patients is a serious public healthissue and a key risk factor for progression as well as diabetes-related complications. The main therapeutic goal ofpreventing organ damage and other problems caused by diabetes is glycemic control. Knowing when to modifyglycemic control in type 2 diabetes Mellitus is crucial for avoiding complications and early drug intensifications.Methods An institutional based retrospective follow-up study was undertaken among 514 eligible adult diabetespatients in Amhara region Comprehensive Specialized Hospitals, Northwest Ethiopia, from January 2017 to January2022. Simple random sampling technique was used to select study participants. The Kaplan Meier curve was usedto assess the survival status of categorical variables, and the log-rank test was used to compare them. The coxproportional hazard model was fitted to identify the predictors of time to first optimal glycemic control. Variables witha p-value < 0.05 were considered to be statistically significance at 95% confidence interval.Results A total of 514 patient records (227 males and 287 females) were reviewed in this study. The median time tofirst optimal glycemic control among the study population was 8.4 months IQR (7.6–9.7). The predictors that affect thetime to first optimal glycemic control were age group ((AHR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.463, 0.859 for 50–59 years), (AHR = 0.638,95% CI = 0.471, 0.865 for 60–69 years), and (AHR = 0.480, 95% CI = 0.298, 0.774 for > = 70 years)), diabetes neuropathy(AHR = 0.629, 95% CI = 0.441,0.900), hypertension (AHR = 0.667, 95% CI = 0.524, 0.848), dyslipidemia (AHR = 0.561, 95%CI = 0.410, 0.768), and cardiovascular disease (AHR = 0.681, 95% CI = 0.494, 0.938).Conclusion The median time to initial optimal glycemic control in type 2 diabetes Mellitus patients in this study wasshort. Age between 50 and 59 years and 60–69, diabetes neuropathy, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and cardiovascular
disease were predictor’s of time to first glycemic control. Therefore, health care providers should pay extra attentionfor patients who are aged and who have complications or co-morbidities.Keywords: Adults, First optimal glycemic control, Type 2 diabetes mellitus, Ethiopia
Full Abstract:
Background Inadequate glycemic management in type 2 diabetes Mellitus patients is a serious public healthissue and a key risk factor for progression as well as diabetes-related complications. The main therapeutic goal ofpreventing organ damage and other problems caused by diabetes is glycemic control. Knowing when to modifyglycemic control in type 2 diabetes Mellitus is crucial for avoiding complications and early drug intensifications.Methods An institutional based retrospective follow-up study was undertaken among 514 eligible adult diabetespatients in Amhara region Comprehensive Specialized Hospitals, Northwest Ethiopia, from January 2017 to January2022. Simple random sampling technique was used to select study participants. The Kaplan Meier curve was usedto assess the survival status of categorical variables, and the log-rank test was used to compare them. The coxproportional hazard model was fitted to identify the predictors of time to first optimal glycemic control. Variables witha p-value < 0.05 were considered to be statistically significance at 95% confidence interval.Results A total of 514 patient records (227 males and 287 females) were reviewed in this study. The median time tofirst optimal glycemic control among the study population was 8.4 months IQR (7.6–9.7). The predictors that affect thetime to first optimal glycemic control were age group ((AHR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.463, 0.859 for 50–59 years), (AHR = 0.638,95% CI = 0.471, 0.865 for 60–69 years), and (AHR = 0.480, 95% CI = 0.298, 0.774 for > = 70 years)), diabetes neuropathy(AHR = 0.629, 95% CI = 0.441,0.900), hypertension (AHR = 0.667, 95% CI = 0.524, 0.848), dyslipidemia (AHR = 0.561, 95%CI = 0.410, 0.768), and cardiovascular disease (AHR = 0.681, 95% CI = 0.494, 0.938).Conclusion The median time to initial optimal glycemic control in type 2 diabetes Mellitus patients in this study wasshort. Age between 50 and 59 years and 60–69, diabetes neuropathy, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and cardiovascular
disease were predictor’s of time to first glycemic control. Therefore, health care providers should pay extra attentionfor patients who are aged and who have complications or co-morbidities.Keywords: Adults, First optimal glycemic control, Type 2 diabetes mellitus, Ethiopia
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Time to major adverse drug reactions and its predictors among children on antiretroviral treatment at northwest Amhara selected public hospitals northwest; Ethiopia, 2023
Journal Article
Bantegizie Senay Tsega1, Abebe Habtamu2, Moges Wubie2, Animut Takele Telayneh2, Bekalu Endalew2, Samuel Derbie Habtegiorgis2, Molla Yigzaw Birhanu2, WorkuMisganaw Kebede3, Keralem Anteneh BishawI Submitted: Oct 03, 2024
College of Health Science Public Health
Abstract Preview:
BackgroundAdverse drug reaction is one of the emerging challenges in antiretroviral treatment. Deter-mining the incidence rate and predictors among children on antiretroviral treatment (ART) isessential to improve treatment outcomes and minimize harm. And also, evidence regardingthe time to major adverse drug reactions and its predictors among children on antiretroviraltreatment is limited in Ethiopia.ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the time to major adverse drug reaction and its predictorsamong children on antiretroviral treatment at selected public hospitals in Northwest Amhara,Ethiopia, 2023.MethodA retrospective cohort study was conducted among 380 children on antiretroviral treatmentwho enrolled from June 27, 2017, to May 31, 2022. Data was collected using a structureddata extraction checklist. Data were entered into Epidata 4.6 and analyzed using STATA14. The incidence rate of major adverse drug reactions was determined per person/months.The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify predictors of majoradverse drug responses. A p-value less than 0.05 with a 95% CI was used to declare statisti-cal significance.
ResultThe minimum and maximum follow-up time was 6 and 59 months, respectively. The studyparticipants were followed for a total of 9916 person-months. The incidence rate of majoradverse drug reactions was 3.5 /1000 person–months. Advanced clinical stages of HIV/AIDS (III and IV) [adjusted hazard ratio = 7.3, 95% CI: 2.74–19.60)], poor treatment adher-ence [adjusted hazard ratio = 0.33, 95% CI: 0.21–0.42], taking antiretroviral treatment twiceand more [adjusted hazard ratio = 3.43, 955 CI: (1.26–9.33)] and not taking opportunisticinfection prophylaxis [adjusted hazard ratio = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.23–0.52)] were predictors ofmajor adverse drug reactions.ConclusionThe incidence rate of major adverse drug reactions among children on antiretroviral treat-ment was congruent with studies in Ethiopia. Advanced clinical stages of HIV/AIDS, poortreatment adherence, taking antiretroviral treatment medications twice or more, and not tak-ing opportunistic infection prophylaxis were predictors of major adverse drug reactions.
Full Abstract:
BackgroundAdverse drug reaction is one of the emerging challenges in antiretroviral treatment. Deter-mining the incidence rate and predictors among children on antiretroviral treatment (ART) isessential to improve treatment outcomes and minimize harm. And also, evidence regardingthe time to major adverse drug reactions and its predictors among children on antiretroviraltreatment is limited in Ethiopia.ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the time to major adverse drug reaction and its predictorsamong children on antiretroviral treatment at selected public hospitals in Northwest Amhara,Ethiopia, 2023.MethodA retrospective cohort study was conducted among 380 children on antiretroviral treatmentwho enrolled from June 27, 2017, to May 31, 2022. Data was collected using a structureddata extraction checklist. Data were entered into Epidata 4.6 and analyzed using STATA14. The incidence rate of major adverse drug reactions was determined per person/months.The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify predictors of majoradverse drug responses. A p-value less than 0.05 with a 95% CI was used to declare statisti-cal significance.
ResultThe minimum and maximum follow-up time was 6 and 59 months, respectively. The studyparticipants were followed for a total of 9916 person-months. The incidence rate of majoradverse drug reactions was 3.5 /1000 person–months. Advanced clinical stages of HIV/AIDS (III and IV) [adjusted hazard ratio = 7.3, 95% CI: 2.74–19.60)], poor treatment adher-ence [adjusted hazard ratio = 0.33, 95% CI: 0.21–0.42], taking antiretroviral treatment twiceand more [adjusted hazard ratio = 3.43, 955 CI: (1.26–9.33)] and not taking opportunisticinfection prophylaxis [adjusted hazard ratio = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.23–0.52)] were predictors ofmajor adverse drug reactions.ConclusionThe incidence rate of major adverse drug reactions among children on antiretroviral treat-ment was congruent with studies in Ethiopia. Advanced clinical stages of HIV/AIDS, poortreatment adherence, taking antiretroviral treatment medications twice or more, and not tak-ing opportunistic infection prophylaxis were predictors of major adverse drug reactions.
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Tree seed supplier alternatives and growers-specific factors on utilization in Northwest Ethiopia
Journal Article
Abay Bantihun Mehari 1 , Asmamaw Alemu Abtew2 and Yigardu Mengesha Mulatu Submitted: Mar 04, 2025
DMU Burie Campus Forestry
Abstract Preview:
AbstractThis study investigated the factors influencing growers in the selection of seed suppliers in theAmhara region of Ethiopia. A total of 385 grower were selected using simple random sam-pling method. A mixed logit regression model was used to the analysis data that have 1284observation. The result reveal that high seed purity was negatively related to the selectionof alternative supplier. As the rating of seed purity increased, the probability of selectingvery high-quality seed suppliers also increased. The availability of tree seeds during the desiredtime period had a significant influence. Higher perceived availability, categorized as high orvery high, decreased the likelihood of promptly obtaining seeds from suppliers comparedto when the seeds were not available. The evaluation rating of germination increases the prob-ability of choosing suppliers with high or very high germination rates in the respective cat-egory. Growers with more experience are more likely to choose private enterprise suppliers.The implementation of appropriate quarantine measures has a positive influence on supplierselection for the groups AFE and EFD-CEC. Training in tree seed collection reduces the like-lihood of choosing enterprise and AFE suppliers. Moreover, the successful production of agreater number of tree species in the nursery positively influences the probability of sourcingfrom enterprise suppliers. This analysis highlights the significance of seed purity, germination,quarantine measures, and the number of species produced, as factors that influence the like-lihood of selecting alternative seed suppliers.
Keywords: growers; mixed logit regression; tree seed suppliers; tree seed
Full Abstract:
AbstractThis study investigated the factors influencing growers in the selection of seed suppliers in theAmhara region of Ethiopia. A total of 385 grower were selected using simple random sam-pling method. A mixed logit regression model was used to the analysis data that have 1284observation. The result reveal that high seed purity was negatively related to the selectionof alternative supplier. As the rating of seed purity increased, the probability of selectingvery high-quality seed suppliers also increased. The availability of tree seeds during the desiredtime period had a significant influence. Higher perceived availability, categorized as high orvery high, decreased the likelihood of promptly obtaining seeds from suppliers comparedto when the seeds were not available. The evaluation rating of germination increases the prob-ability of choosing suppliers with high or very high germination rates in the respective cat-egory. Growers with more experience are more likely to choose private enterprise suppliers.The implementation of appropriate quarantine measures has a positive influence on supplierselection for the groups AFE and EFD-CEC. Training in tree seed collection reduces the like-lihood of choosing enterprise and AFE suppliers. Moreover, the successful production of agreater number of tree species in the nursery positively influences the probability of sourcingfrom enterprise suppliers. This analysis highlights the significance of seed purity, germination,quarantine measures, and the number of species produced, as factors that influence the like-lihood of selecting alternative seed suppliers.
Keywords: growers; mixed logit regression; tree seed suppliers; tree seed
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Under-five mortality and its associated factors in sub-Saharan Africa: a multilevel analysis of recent demographic and health surveys data based on Bayesian approach
Journal Article
Atalay Liknaw Birhanie, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Bekalu Endalew, and Koku Sisay Tamirat Submitted: Oct 11, 2025
College of Health Science Public Health
Abstract Preview:
Background: An estimated 75.8 under-five deaths per 1000 live births occurred in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and factors associated with under-five mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: This study was based on secondary data sources from 33 Sub-Saharan countries’ recent Demography and Health surveys from 2010 to 2020. A weighted sample of 360,397 under-five children was included in the study. Bayesian multilevel binary logistic regression was fitted using the brms R package. Besides, leave one out information criteria was used for model comparison. The adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were reported for significant factors associated with under-five mortality. Clinical trial number: not applicable. Results: The prevalence of under-five mortality in sub Saharan Africa was 62 per 1000 live births (95%CI (56.29, 68.29). In sub region of SSA, it was 65 in central, 52 in eastern, 50 in southern and 73 in western region per 1000 live births. Multiple birth (AOR = 5.27; 95%CrI: 4.72, 5.87), number of under-five children 3 to 5 (AOR = 3.31; 95%CrI: 3.01, 3.60), caesarean section delivery (AOR = 1.64; 95%CrI: 1.47, 1.83), being unmarried (AOR = 1.16; 95%CrI 1.08, 1.26), using unimproved toilet (AOR = 1.08;95%CrI: 1.02, 1.16), birth order of 4th to 6th (AOR = 1.18; 95%CrI:1.1, 1.25),were risk factors of under-five mortality. Whereas, being female (AOR = 0.86; 95%CrI: 0.82, 0.91), preceding birth interval of 24–35 months (AOR = 0.61; 95%CrI: 0.57, 0.65) and above 36 months (AOR = 0.48; 95%CrI: 0.43, 0.49), ANC visit (AOR = 0.80; 95%CrI: 0.74 0.86), contraceptive use (AOR = 0.57; 95%CrI: 0.53, 0.61), were preventive factors of under-five mortality. Conclusion: Under-five mortality remains the highest in sub-Saharan Africa. Most of the risk factors of under-five mortality were found to be preventable. Policymakers and other stakeholders should enhance maternal education, lengthen birth interval, ANC visit, improved toilet facilities and, giving special attention to small size child and cesarean section delivery to reduce under-five mortality. Keywords: Under-five mortality, Associated factors, Bayesian, Sub-saharan Africa, DHS
Full Abstract:
Background: An estimated 75.8 under-five deaths per 1000 live births occurred in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and factors associated with under-five mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: This study was based on secondary data sources from 33 Sub-Saharan countries’ recent Demography and Health surveys from 2010 to 2020. A weighted sample of 360,397 under-five children was included in the study. Bayesian multilevel binary logistic regression was fitted using the brms R package. Besides, leave one out information criteria was used for model comparison. The adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were reported for significant factors associated with under-five mortality. Clinical trial number: not applicable. Results: The prevalence of under-five mortality in sub Saharan Africa was 62 per 1000 live births (95%CI (56.29, 68.29). In sub region of SSA, it was 65 in central, 52 in eastern, 50 in southern and 73 in western region per 1000 live births. Multiple birth (AOR = 5.27; 95%CrI: 4.72, 5.87), number of under-five children 3 to 5 (AOR = 3.31; 95%CrI: 3.01, 3.60), caesarean section delivery (AOR = 1.64; 95%CrI: 1.47, 1.83), being unmarried (AOR = 1.16; 95%CrI 1.08, 1.26), using unimproved toilet (AOR = 1.08;95%CrI: 1.02, 1.16), birth order of 4th to 6th (AOR = 1.18; 95%CrI:1.1, 1.25),were risk factors of under-five mortality. Whereas, being female (AOR = 0.86; 95%CrI: 0.82, 0.91), preceding birth interval of 24–35 months (AOR = 0.61; 95%CrI: 0.57, 0.65) and above 36 months (AOR = 0.48; 95%CrI: 0.43, 0.49), ANC visit (AOR = 0.80; 95%CrI: 0.74 0.86), contraceptive use (AOR = 0.57; 95%CrI: 0.53, 0.61), were preventive factors of under-five mortality. Conclusion: Under-five mortality remains the highest in sub-Saharan Africa. Most of the risk factors of under-five mortality were found to be preventable. Policymakers and other stakeholders should enhance maternal education, lengthen birth interval, ANC visit, improved toilet facilities and, giving special attention to small size child and cesarean section delivery to reduce under-five mortality. Keywords: Under-five mortality, Associated factors, Bayesian, Sub-saharan Africa, DHS
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Understanding Flood and Drought Extremes Under a Changing Cimate in the Blue Nile Basin: A Review
Journal Article
Demelash Ademe Malede a,b,c,*, Vetrimurugan Elumalai b,c, Tesfa Gebrie Andualem d,e, Yilkal Gebeyehu Mekonnen a, Mesenbet Yibeltal f, Girum Getachew Demeke g,h,i, Tena Alamirew j, Shimelash Molla Kassaye k, Yonas Gebreslasie Hagos l, Anmut Enawgaw Kassie a, Mulatu Kassa m, Gizachew Sewagegn Berihun a, Ram L. Ray Submitted: Feb 15, 2025
DMU Burie Campus Natural Resource Management
Abstract Preview:
Extreme flood and drought events arise from temporal and spatial variations in the Earth’s water cycle, signif-icantly affecting water resources and the environment. This review aimed to evaluate the effects of climatevariabilities on extreme flood and drought events within the Blue Nile Basin. A systematic literature review andcontent analysis were conducted to understand the hydrological dynamics of floods and droughts. A Scopusdatabase was used to find relevant literature review articles related to flood and drought extreme events usingsearch terms queries. The findings suggest that rising temperatures and fluctuating precipitation patterns areleading to more frequent and severe floods and droughts. Future projections also suggest increased droughtseverity in most basin areas, coupled with more frequent floods. Fluctuations between dry and wet conditionshave intensified these extremes. While insufficient rainfall triggers droughts, excessive and concentrated rainfallcontributes to floods. The wet projection shows more frequent floods, while the dry projection indicates severedroughts throughout most of the basin. This review provides a valuable starting point for further action towards amore climate-resilient and water-secure for sustainable environmental development and management over thebasin.
Keywords: BNB, Climate variability, Hydrological extremes, Water resource
Full Abstract:
Extreme flood and drought events arise from temporal and spatial variations in the Earth’s water cycle, signif-icantly affecting water resources and the environment. This review aimed to evaluate the effects of climatevariabilities on extreme flood and drought events within the Blue Nile Basin. A systematic literature review andcontent analysis were conducted to understand the hydrological dynamics of floods and droughts. A Scopusdatabase was used to find relevant literature review articles related to flood and drought extreme events usingsearch terms queries. The findings suggest that rising temperatures and fluctuating precipitation patterns areleading to more frequent and severe floods and droughts. Future projections also suggest increased droughtseverity in most basin areas, coupled with more frequent floods. Fluctuations between dry and wet conditionshave intensified these extremes. While insufficient rainfall triggers droughts, excessive and concentrated rainfallcontributes to floods. The wet projection shows more frequent floods, while the dry projection indicates severedroughts throughout most of the basin. This review provides a valuable starting point for further action towards amore climate-resilient and water-secure for sustainable environmental development and management over thebasin.
Keywords: BNB, Climate variability, Hydrological extremes, Water resource
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Understanding the dynamics of post-surgical recovery and its predictors in resource-limited settings: a prospective cohort study
Journal Article
Awoke Fetahi Woudneh1* Submitted: Jan 07, 2025
Natural & Computational Sciences Statistics
Abstract Preview:
Introduction Post-surgical recovery time is influenced by various factors, including patient demographics, surgicaldetails, pre-existing conditions, post-operative care, and socioeconomic status. Understanding these dynamics iscrucial for improving patient outcomes. This study aims to identify significant predictors of post-surgical recoverytime in a resource-limited Ethiopian hospital setting and to evaluate the variability attributable to individual patientdifferences and surgical team variations.Methods A linear mixed model was employed to analyze data from 490 patients who underwent various surgicalprocedures. The analysis considered multiple predictors, including age, gender, BMI, type and duration of surgery,comorbidities (diabetes and hypertension), ASA scores, postoperative complications, pain management strategies,physiotherapy, smoking status, alcohol consumption, and socioeconomic status. Random effects were included toaccount for variability at the patient and surgical team levels.Results Significant predictors of prolonged recovery time included higher BMI, longer surgery duration, thepresence of diabetes and hypertension, higher ASA scores, and major post-operative complications. Opioid painmanagement was associated with increased recovery time, while inpatient physiotherapy reduced recovery duration.Socioeconomic status also significantly influenced recovery time. The model fit statistics indicated a robust model,with the unstructured covariance structure providing the best fit.Conclusion The findings highlight the importance of individualized patient care and the effective management ofmodifiable factors such as BMI, surgery duration, and postoperative complications. Socioeconomic status emerged asa novel factor warranting further investigation. This study underscores the value of considering patient and surgicalteam variability in post-surgical recovery analysis, and calls for future research to explore additional predictors andalternative modeling techniques to enhance our understanding of the recovery process.Keywords Postsurgical recovery, Linear mixed model, BMI, Surgery duration, Comorbidities, ASA scores,Postoperative complications, Pain management, Physiotherapy, And socioeconomic status
Full Abstract:
Introduction Post-surgical recovery time is influenced by various factors, including patient demographics, surgicaldetails, pre-existing conditions, post-operative care, and socioeconomic status. Understanding these dynamics iscrucial for improving patient outcomes. This study aims to identify significant predictors of post-surgical recoverytime in a resource-limited Ethiopian hospital setting and to evaluate the variability attributable to individual patientdifferences and surgical team variations.Methods A linear mixed model was employed to analyze data from 490 patients who underwent various surgicalprocedures. The analysis considered multiple predictors, including age, gender, BMI, type and duration of surgery,comorbidities (diabetes and hypertension), ASA scores, postoperative complications, pain management strategies,physiotherapy, smoking status, alcohol consumption, and socioeconomic status. Random effects were included toaccount for variability at the patient and surgical team levels.Results Significant predictors of prolonged recovery time included higher BMI, longer surgery duration, thepresence of diabetes and hypertension, higher ASA scores, and major post-operative complications. Opioid painmanagement was associated with increased recovery time, while inpatient physiotherapy reduced recovery duration.Socioeconomic status also significantly influenced recovery time. The model fit statistics indicated a robust model,with the unstructured covariance structure providing the best fit.Conclusion The findings highlight the importance of individualized patient care and the effective management ofmodifiable factors such as BMI, surgery duration, and postoperative complications. Socioeconomic status emerged asa novel factor warranting further investigation. This study underscores the value of considering patient and surgicalteam variability in post-surgical recovery analysis, and calls for future research to explore additional predictors andalternative modeling techniques to enhance our understanding of the recovery process.Keywords Postsurgical recovery, Linear mixed model, BMI, Surgery duration, Comorbidities, ASA scores,Postoperative complications, Pain management, Physiotherapy, And socioeconomic status
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